33% from three is nearly the same bet as 50% from two: each shot returns about one point before rebounds, fouls, and turnovers enter the ledger. That feels wrong. You see more misses from deep, yet the extra point changes the arithmetic; 0.33 times 3 is 0.99, while 0.50 times 2 is 1.00.The shortcut is useful, but it is not magic. Effective field-goal percentage gives made threes an extra half-make...More